Saturday, 8:15 p.m. | ABC, ESPN
This is one of just two games on the slate where both teams have something to play for. The victor would win the AFC South if the Jacksonville Jaguars lose or tie against the Tennessee Titans. But even if the Jaguars win, the winner of this game will clinch a playoff spot. (See the full list of scenarios here.)
On paper, Houston looks like the better team. The Texans’ net efficiency ranks 12th after adjusting for strength of schedule, per analyst Aaron Schatz’s defense-adjusted value over average, while Indianapolis is 19th. The actual gap between them (7 percent), based on historical data, suggests the Colts should be a slight favorite at home.
Indianapolis should also have an edge in the trenches, especially when facing quarterback C.J. Stroud and Houston’s passing attack. The Colts’ pass rush ranks ninth, per Pro Football Focus, while the Texans’ offensive line ranks 19th in pass blocking. Stroud performs worse under pressure, as do most passers — but his drop in production is severe. His passer rating declines from 110.3 when operating in a clean pocket to 71.9 when facing pressure, which corresponds to a decline from the sixth-best passer out of 24 qualified quarterbacks to the fifth-worst, per PFF grades.
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